In John Steinbeck’s novel East of Eden, Will Hamilton sees that with World War 1 predictably dragging on, the price of a durable food like beans – grown locally in the Salinas Valley, and shipped to feed the Allied armies – was sure to go up, a lot. So he and the tortured protagonist, Cal Trask (James Dean in the movie), make a small fortune acting on this insight.

Don’t worry, this isn’t a lesson in ethically compromised commodity speculation during war. No, it’s about seeing the elephant in the room, connecting the dots, and acting.

You’d have to be Rip Van Winkle not to know that the cost of power, and particularly electricity, has been going up significantly. Drivers include:

  • The movement to electrify everything
  • Onboarding of renewables
  • Infrastructure investments
  • The AI data center boom
  • Climate disasters
  • A constrained energy industry

According to reporting by Jennifer Hiller in the Wall Street Journal, January 17, “Soaring Electricity Costs Are Now a Hot Political Issue”, electricity costs in the US are up about 38% since 2020, and they rose 6.7% in December from a year earlier. These are national averages; many states, including California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, have seen much higher rate increases, up to 100% or more.

Might there be clues as to what we can expect in the future? Well, there’s this graph, from the January 12th Wall Street Journal article “America’s Biggest Power Grid Operator Has an AI Problem – Too Many Data Centers” by Katherine Blunt and Jennifer Hiller, which ICF produced, that tells us what? Looks like we’re in the first blip of a sustained explosion in electricity demand. Possibly almost doubling by 2050!

The Wall Street Journal

What could go wrong? One might speculate that cost escalations and supply disruptions could follow. What are the options to mitigate the rising costs and growing potential for blackouts?

  • Stop electrifying everything? Not if we want a renewables-dominated energy supply.
  • Stop onboarding renewables? Not if we want to maintain a livable biosphere.
  • Stop investing in power infrastructure? Not if you want to keep the lights on.
  • Turn off the AI data center boom? Maybe, but did you stop radio, television, desktop computers, the internet, mobile phones, Amazon Plus, or the military industrial complex?
  • The climate disasters are perhaps the most pernicious reality we will grow old with – our past inaction relentlessly biting us in the……future.
  • Energy industry reform? It feels as difficult as healthcare reform.

Given limited options, Passive House is a growing safe harbor, crushing energy use while providing safety in blackouts and other valuable co-benefits. It’s not about making a fortune. It is about making life more affordable, economically secure, and safer for everyone. The Passive House Institute published Fact Sheet 29 by Dr. Jürgen Schnieders in 2023 on the economic benefits in the German context, given the war in Ukraine, and on survivability during blackouts with an uncertain power supply. It’s relevant here too.

For people serving the economically marginalized, the struggling working and middle classes, and building owners, Passive House should be a fundamental strategy for managing budgets, supporting economic solvency, keeping the lights on, staying safe, staying healthy, and securing a better future.

Hotel Marcel is one example. A corporate office building in New Haven, Connecticut, was repurposed and renovated to the Passive House retrofit standard called EnerPHit. It is also the location of our national Passive House conference on June 4-5.

Whether you’re an activist, a professional, a property owner, a utility manager, or a regulator, if you’re ready to invest in a more secure future that can benefit everyone, join us. Learn what the hotel and many others have accomplished. Connect with a global ecosystem of experience and support so you can do it too. Profit by experience.